Risk doesn't wait for permission to arrive. We've navigated forced relocations, survived cartel proximity, and rebuilt after political transitions gutted stakeholder networks. Our forecasting isn't theoretical—it's built from scars, pattern recognition, and ground truth. We identify what's forming beneath surface stability while you still have leverage to act, not react.
A trusted partner with undisclosed cartel ties. A regulatory shift buried in procedural language. A political transition that redefines who holds real power. A community dynamic that turns your presence from welcome to liability.
In fragile operating environments, the most dangerous risks don't show up in country reports or embassy briefings. They live in the informal systems that actually control access, enforcement, and stability. And by the time they surface visibly, your options have already narrowed.
We're operators turned advisors who've worked in post-command economies, donor-dependent markets, and cartel-influenced regions across three continents. We've navigated forced relocations, patronage network collapses, and environments where yesterday's safe bet became tomorrow's liability.
That experience taught us something critical: most organizations are looking at the wrong signals. They track official announcements while missing the informal power shifts that actually determine operational reality.
We help you identify hidden vulnerabilities, decode what's happening in systems others can't read, and build contingency plans before you're forced to make decisions under pressure.
Who We Help: Leadership teams, investors, and boards operating in politically sensitive, institutionally weak, or rapidly shifting markets.
Typical Situations: Market entry into fragile jurisdictions, donor-dependent operations facing funding uncertainty, expansion into cartel-influenced regions, exposure to informal power networks, or operations in conflict-adjacent zones.
Our Role: Map political and operational risk before it becomes crisis, decode informal power structures, identify hidden vulnerabilities, and build contingency frameworks that preserve optionality.
How We Work: Environmental assessment → Stakeholder mapping → Risk pattern identification → Scenario planning → Ongoing monitoring as needed.
Outcomes: Clear visibility into threats others miss, contingency plans built before pressure arrives, and positioning that survives disruption instead of reacting to it.
How to Get in Touch: Fill out this form or contact us on Signal at pholus.01 for a confidential risk brief.
Most operational collapses aren't caused by the risk itself - they're caused by betting everything on the assumption that the risk won't materialize.
Every engagement is shaped by your specific geography and operating model, but here's what risk forecasting typically includes:
We don't deliver country risk reports you could get from insurance companies or political analysis you could read in the Economist. We deliver forecasting that identifies what will actually disrupt your operations and contingency planning that gives you options before the crisis forces your hand.
Most organizations realize they needed risk forecasting after they've already lost leverage. These are the situations where early warning systems, political pattern recognition, and operational stress-testing become the difference between survival and collapse.
You're considering expansion into a new country or region. The economic opportunity looks real, but the operating environment is opaque. Official reports say one thing. Your local contacts say another. You don't know which informal networks actually control access, which political figures are stable versus performative, or whether regulatory frameworks will hold.
We map the political landscape, identify power brokers who actually matter, assess patronage network stability, and flag operational vulnerabilities before you commit capital. We help you understand whether the ground is solid or whether you're building on a system about to shift.
This isn't about telling you not to enter. It's about entering with eyes open, contingency plans ready, and a realistic timeline for when conditions might change.
We provide environmental briefings, stakeholder risk assessments, and scenario planning that accounts for political transitions, enforcement pattern shifts, and informal power dynamics that won't show up in country risk reports.
Your team operates in zones where criminal organizations have territorial influence. You've heard rumors about extortion schemes targeting similar operations. Staff are nervous. You don't know whether your current security posture is adequate or whether you're already exposed without realizing it.
We assess cartel proximity to your operations, map extortion risk patterns in your sector, evaluate whether your local partners have undisclosed criminal ties, and identify operational vulnerabilities that make you a target. We help you understand what protection actually looks like versus what creates the appearance of safety while increasing exposure.
This work requires discretion. We don't broadcast our involvement, and we don't create visibility that makes you more interesting to the wrong people.
We help you determine whether your current location is sustainable, what operational adjustments reduce risk without signaling weakness, and when relocation becomes necessary versus optional. We've navigated cartel-adjacent operations before. We know the difference between manageable risk and unacceptable exposure.
You operate in a donor-funded ecosystem. Your current grants are stable, but you're seeing signals that donor priorities are shifting. Political changes in donor countries might redirect capital flows. Your sector is losing visibility in funding circles. You need to know whether this is temporary noise or a structural shift that will redefine your operating model.
We analyze donor landscape trends, assess whether your organization is positioned for upcoming funding cycles, identify which funders are pulling back versus doubling down, and map alternative capital sources before your current funding ends.
We help you understand whether donor rule changes will quietly rewrite your market, whether your competitors are better positioned for the next cycle, and whether you need to diversify revenue streams before dependency becomes fragility.
This isn't generic nonprofit consulting. We focus on the political and operational dynamics that actually drive donor behavior: geopolitical priorities, domestic political pressures in donor countries, and sector-level shifts that haven't made it into official guidance yet.
Elections are coming. Leadership transitions are rumored. The political figure your organization relied on for access might be losing influence. You don't know whether incoming leadership will honor existing arrangements, whether your sector will face increased scrutiny, or whether the informal networks you've built will survive the transition.
We forecast political transition impacts, map power structure changes, assess whether your current stakeholder relationships are durable or tied to outgoing figures, and identify which regulatory or enforcement priorities are likely to shift.
We help you understand who's actually gaining power (not just who's winning elections), which informal networks are fracturing versus consolidating, and whether your organization's positioning makes you vulnerable to post-transition retaliation or regulatory targeting.
This work is especially critical in environments where patronage networks control more than official channels, where political transitions trigger score-settling, or where your visibility makes you a symbolic target for incoming leadership trying to signal change.
You've been operating under stable regulatory conditions. But you're seeing subtle changes: enforcement language is shifting, informal guidance from regulators has changed tone, or similar organizations are facing unexpected scrutiny. You don't know whether this is routine or whether enforcement priorities are about to tighten in ways that expose your operations.
We track enforcement pattern shifts, decode regulatory language changes that signal priority shifts, assess whether your operational model is positioned for increased scrutiny, and identify compliance gaps before they become enforcement actions.
We help you understand whether you're seeing the leading edge of a crackdown, whether your sector is being targeted specifically or whether this is system-wide pressure, and what operational adjustments reduce exposure without triggering the visibility that invites closer examination.
This isn't legal compliance work. We coordinate with your legal counsel, but our focus is operational positioning: reading political signals that drive enforcement, understanding informal power dynamics that shape regulatory discretion, and identifying when compliance gaps become liabilities worth addressing immediately.
Don't Wait for Clarity That Comes Too Late
The warning signs are already there—political shifts, enforcement pattern changes, informal network fractures that will redefine your operating reality. We'll help you read them, map what's forming beneath surface stability, and build contingency plans while you still have leverage to act instead of reacting under pressure when options have narrowed.
Confidential brief. 48-hour response. No obligation.
Most organizations realize they needed risk forecasting after they've already lost position, leverage, or the ability to exit on their terms.
We don't wait for perfect information. We assess your operating environment, identify hidden vulnerabilities, map emerging threats, and build contingency frameworks while you still have leverage and options.
We begin by understanding your operating context, stakeholder landscape, and specific concerns. This isn't generic country risk analysis. We map what actually matters to your operations.
We conduct confidential intake sessions with your leadership team to understand current operations, relationships, and vulnerabilities. We review your existing risk assessments to identify gaps between official reports and operational reality. We map your stakeholder network—who you depend on, who depends on you, and where those relationships create exposure.
We identify your specific pressure points: regulatory dependencies, political relationships, supply chain vulnerabilities, reputational exposure points, or operational chokepoints that could become liabilities if conditions shift.
This phase establishes baseline understanding. We're not making recommendations yet. We're learning what you know, what you suspect, and what you haven't thought to question.
Outcome: Clear scope of engagement, identified priority concerns, baseline environmental map established.
Now we dig into what's actually happening beneath surface stability. We analyze political dynamics, decode informal power structures, track enforcement pattern shifts, and identify operational vulnerabilities invisible from inside your organization.
We leverage ground-level intelligence networks, review enforcement and regulatory trend data, analyze political transition indicators and patronage network stability, and assess sector-specific targeting patterns that could affect your operations.
We identify emerging threats: political figures losing influence who you depend on, regulatory language shifts that signal enforcement priority changes, cartel expansion patterns approaching your operational zones, donor funding model shifts that could redefine your sector, or informal network fractures that could eliminate your access channels.
This is where pattern recognition matters. We're not predicting the future—we're identifying what's already forming based on signals others dismiss as noise.
Outcome: Comprehensive risk landscape map, prioritized threat assessment, early warning indicators identified.
We translate risk intelligence into actionable scenarios. What happens if the political figure you depend on loses power? What if enforcement priorities shift to your sector? What if cartel influence expands into your operating zone? What if donor funding dries up?
We build scenario models for realistic threat trajectories, identify decision trigger points—when do you adjust versus when do you exit, map operational adjustments that reduce exposure without abandoning position, and design contingency plans for scenarios ranging from minor disruption to forced exit.
We help you understand what each scenario would cost, what warning signs would precede it, and what decisions you'd need to make at different stages. This isn't about creating fear—it's about removing surprise.
You get concrete playbooks: if X happens, here's your decision tree. If Y intensifies, here are your options. If Z becomes irreversible, here's your exit path.
Outcome: Scenario-based contingency framework, clear decision triggers, operational adjustment recommendations.
Risk doesn't sit still. For clients operating in highly volatile environments, we offer ongoing monitoring to track whether identified threats are intensifying, stabilizing, or evolving into new patterns.
We provide quarterly intelligence updates on key risk indicators, monitor political and regulatory developments that affect your operations, assess whether your contingency plans remain valid or need adjustment, and deliver alert briefings when trigger points approach.
This isn't a permanent engagement. It's structured intelligence support that keeps you ahead of shifts without requiring full-time advisory presence. You stay in control. We stay available.
Outcome: Maintained situational awareness, updated scenario planning, early warning when conditions deteriorate.
See What's Coming While You Still Have Options
Pattern recognition means positioning ahead of disruption instead of reacting to it when you've already lost leverage. Get a forecasting engagement that maps political transitions, regulatory shifts, and operational threats before they become the crisis that forces your exit or costs you everything you've built in a market you thought was stable.
Discreet engagement. Ground truth, not theory. Clear deliverables.
Instability has a rhythm. Once you learn to read it, you can position ahead of disruption instead of scrambling to survive what you didn't see coming.
We're not academics observing from a distance. We're operators who've navigated the environments we forecast. That lived experience shapes how we read risk, decode informal systems, and identify patterns others miss.
We've operated in fragile markets, not just studied them. Our forecasting is built from firsthand experience in post-command economies, cartel-influenced zones, donor-dependent ecosystems, and conflict-adjacent regions. We know what these environments feel like when they shift because we've been there when they did.
We've navigated forced relocations, political transitions, patronage network collapses, and regulatory crackdowns. That survival taught us to read early warning signals, distinguish noise from actual threats, and identify when conditions are deteriorating versus temporarily unstable. We forecast from scars, not spreadsheets.
We don't broadcast our involvement. We don't over-scope engagements or drag out timelines. We assess, deliver findings, and help you build contingency plans without creating unnecessary visibility. You get actionable intelligence quickly, then decide what happens next. No dependency. No theatrics.
We work alongside your legal counsel, security advisors, and operational leadership without competing for authority or creating confusion. Our role is strategic intelligence and scenario planning. We fill gaps in your risk visibility without disrupting reporting lines or decision structures you already have in place.
See how early risk mapping prevented catastrophic loss for organizations operating in unstable environments.
Note: All case studies are anonymized to protect client confidentiality. Details changed to prevent identification while preserving strategic lessons.
The cost of waiting for clarity is often losing your ability to respond. We help you make decisions with incomplete information while you still have options.
"Most risk intelligence comes from people who've studied fragile markets, not operated in them. I've built businesses in cartel-influenced zones, survived political transitions, and navigated post-command economies firsthand. That experience shapes how we forecast for you."
Initial response within 48 hours. Risk briefs delivered in days, not weeks. We don't drag out engagements or over-scope assessments. You get clarity fast, then decide whether deeper forecasting makes sense.
No public visibility. No case studies without permission. No loose talk. We coordinate discreetly with your legal counsel, operational teams, and stakeholders. Your exposure stays contained while we map risk.
We advise. You decide. We don't take operational authority or push decisions you're not ready to make. We deliver honest assessments, scenario planning, and contingency frameworks. What happens next is yours.
We're not the right fit if you're looking for traditional country risk reports, academic research, or generic consulting frameworks. We don't produce 80-page decks that sit on shelves. We don't operate at a distance from ground truth.
We're also not the right fit if you're hoping risk will resolve itself, if you're uncomfortable with honest assessments that challenge optimistic assumptions, or if you're not willing to act on what forecasting reveals. Pattern recognition only matters if you're prepared to adjust when the pattern points somewhere uncomfortable.
We're not a permanent fixture. We forecast, deliver findings, and help you build contingency plans. Then we step back. If you need someone embedded in your operations indefinitely, we're not structured for that.
Finally, we're not the right fit if your operating environment is stable, low-risk, and institutionally strong. Our work is designed for fragile markets, politically sensitive environments, and contexts where informal systems matter more than official channels. If you don't operate there, you don't need us.