Pholus Advisory

Peru’s Congress removed President Dina Boluarte early Friday morning with 121 votes, citing “permanent moral incapacity” to address organized crime. This marks Peru’s third president since 2022. The same Congress that removed Pedro Castillo has now removed his successor. As someone who has facilitated thousands of cross-border transactions across Latin…

Every experienced leader eventually faces it: a missed signal during due diligence that later becomes a liability. Sometimes it’s a concealed relationship. Sometimes it’s a partner with undisclosed debt, a founder with political baggage, or a “compliant” supplier that turns out to be an operational risk. Whatever the oversight, what…

When a threat surfaces—whether personal, political, or operational—team leaders on the ground often absorb the initial shock. Their instinct is to alert headquarters, seek cover, or step back entirely. But premature escalation can trigger an overreaction from donors, executives, or boards. The result is a double crisis: a rattled team…

In complex operating environments, compliance can become a performance. Financial reports are submitted on time. Procurement procedures are formally documented. Spending appears aligned with approved budgets. And yet—funds go missing, services fall short, and outcomes deteriorate. When donor rules are followed but money is still misused, the problem is not…

When evaluating a startup, much of the focus is placed on the founder. This is understandable. The founder sets the tone, articulates the vision, and often acts as the public face of the company. But in fragile markets or sensitive sectors, the founder is rarely acting alone. Capital often arrives…

Deciding to wind down a project, business, or operation is difficult. Communicating that decision to stakeholders is harder. When handled poorly, these conversations cause reputational damage, emotional backlash, or even legal exposure. But when done with structure and respect, notification can preserve trust, limit risk, and allow for future engagement—even…

Surprise visits are one of the few tools leaders can use to cut through polished updates, staged reporting, and unchallenged routines. But the objective is often misunderstood. These visits are not meant to expose individuals or punish teams. Their purpose is to reassert expectations, reestablish accountability, and observe what happens…

Realizing that a local partner may be involved in illicit financial flows is one of the most difficult positions a project lead, donor, or investor can face. The relationship is often established. Money has already moved. Public alignment may exist. But once the red flags are confirmed—or even strongly suspected—inaction…

Not every business is what it claims to be. Behind storefronts, digital platforms, or community ventures, some entities exist primarily to transfer, obscure, or clean money for other actors. These businesses are operational in form but hollow in function—designed less to sell a product or service and more to facilitate…

Investors and corporate strategists treat due diligence as a shield against unpleasant surprises. Yet many reviews rely on static checklists and desk research that overlook shifting power structures, informal networks, and on-the-ground realities. When those blind spots collide with complex environments, deals stall, assets underperform, and reputations suffer. A stronger…

In fragile markets or politically sensitive environments, the lines of authority can shift overnight. Permits are issued and revoked. New actors claim control. Field staff receive conflicting orders. In these moments, acting too quickly—or too confidently—can trigger legal exposure, political backlash, or reputational damage. A deliberate pause, not a rushed…

A signed financial statement often brings comfort. To boards, donors, and investors, it signals legitimacy. But in high-risk environments—especially where informal networks and layered loyalties dominate—a clean sign-off can conceal rather than reveal. The cash may already be gone, diverted through mechanisms that remain invisible to standard reviews. When this…

Not all civil unrest leads to insurgency. But all insurgencies begin with unrest that was either ignored, misread, or dismissed as temporary noise. For organizations operating in fragile environments—especially those with field teams, strategic assets, or donor-backed infrastructure—the ability to distinguish between episodic protest and pre-insurgency conditions is a governance…

In emerging or unfamiliar markets, many international organizations turn to local advertising agencies to execute outreach, mobilization, or visibility campaigns. When the partnership functions well, it delivers cultural resonance, logistical efficiency, and measurable impact. But over time, even the most promising local agency relationships can experience drift—subtle shifts in focus,…

Titles, reporting lines, and organizational charts often paint a clean picture of governance. But in complex or fragile markets, these formal structures rarely reflect operational reality. Power flows along lines of trust, control, and narrative—not just hierarchy. Nowhere is this clearer than in the advertising and communications process. If you…

When a project becomes reputationally, politically, or ethically compromised, leadership faces a critical decision: stay, fix, or exit. In fragile markets, even the appearance of contamination—from allegations, internal misconduct, or partner exposure—can be destabilizing. If left unmanaged, it spreads beyond the project itself, infecting donor confidence, staff morale, and organizational…

In high-risk regions, development projects, corporate investments, and even humanitarian operations can unknowingly intersect with organized crime. These links may be indirect, buried in supply chains, local subcontracting, or political patronage networks. Whether you’re deploying capital or delivering aid, exposure to organized crime presents not only a legal risk but…

Unauthorized redirection of client funds is not just a breach of protocol. It’s a threat to the credibility of your operation. Whether the act was malicious, opportunistic, or a result of unclear systems, your response must prioritize containment, trust repair, and legal exposure management. Especially in fragile or cross-border environments,…

Donor priorities—whether tied to governance, inclusion, sustainability, or transparency—are not just ideals. They shape how funding is allocated, how outcomes are measured, and how partnerships are judged. Yet in many settings, especially in fragile or transitional environments, some founders learn to mimic these priorities without embracing them. They speak the…

Crisis is inevitable in frontier markets and fragile economies. Supply chains break, political winds shift, funding cycles stall, and key personnel exit. For founders, these pressures can trigger more than strategic challenges: they can provoke emotional responses that ripple outward. A crisis doesn’t need to derail a project, but when…

When internal misuse of funds is uncovered—whether through fraud, mismanagement, or error—the immediate focus often turns to donors, auditors, or internal controls. But vendors are part of the risk environment too. If they’ve been underpaid, left waiting, or dragged into a dispute they didn’t cause, the damage goes beyond invoices.…

In cross-border investment and development work, regulatory arbitrage is often misunderstood as clever strategy. At its core, it involves exploiting differences between jurisdictions to bypass strict rules, reduce oversight, or access financial or legal loopholes. While it can offer short-term advantages, it introduces serious long-term risks. For investors, donors, and…

Risk frameworks, due diligence protocols, and third-party audits are designed to prevent failure. Yet in fragile economies and high-risk environments, even projects that pass every formal test can collapse without warning. Why? Because standard evaluation tools often miss the very dynamics that define real-world resilience. Institutional failure is rarely caused…

Auditors play a central role in safeguarding institutional integrity. But when red flags arise—particularly in high-risk or opaque jurisdictions—some auditors look the other way. Whether due to distance, pressure, or deference, ignoring warning signs isn’t just a professional lapse. It’s a systemic failure that enables fraud, exposes investors, and leaves…

In high-pressure environments, founders are expected to be visionaries, decision-makers, and stabilizers. But when crisis hits, even the most composed founder can spiral—emotionally, operationally, or reputationally. Early intervention by boards, advisors, or key partners is not interference. It is risk mitigation. In fragile ecosystems, founder behavior during crisis determines whether…

International ad agencies often arrive in informal economies armed with polished decks, global portfolios, and high production values. They speak the language of awards and metrics. But despite their creative assets, many of these firms consistently underdeliver. In economies where cash circulates off the books, trust is earned in person,…

In fragile, politically sensitive, or low-transparency markets, local legal counsel is often your first—and sometimes only—line of defense. But just because they aren’t raising concerns doesn’t mean your position is secure. In many cases, legal counsel fails not by making a catastrophic error, but by quietly opting out of their…

In complex or fragmented markets, local campaigns often get greenlit based on urgency or proximity, not evidence. Billboards go up. Radio ads run. Local agencies report “good engagement.” But actual demand doesn’t materialize. Whether you are funding a program, investing in a startup, or backing an advocacy initiative, knowing whether…

Founders often appear steady during early-stage growth. But when real crisis hits—whether legal, operational, or reputational—the pressure exposes new fault lines. Panic sets in quickly. Public silence gives way to frantic outreach. Decisions start stacking without coordination. In fragile environments or donor-facing operations, this isn’t just disruptive. It’s dangerous. Stakeholders…

Hiring local counsel is a standard step in international projects, especially in fragile or politically complex jurisdictions. But the assumption that local legal advisors are safeguarding your interests can become a liability when their silence masks deeper risks. Deference, fear, or institutional capture can lead to a dangerous dynamic: a…